Anticipate healthcare demand
Inform interventions
Support clinical trials
\[I(t) = R_t \sum_{\tau} g_{\tau} I_{t-\tau}\]
We can compare forecasts using
proper scoring rules, e.g.
\[\mathrm{CRPS}(F, x) = \mathbb{E}|X-x| - \frac{1}{2}\mathbb{E}|X-X'|\]
We can compare forecasts using proper scoring rules, e.g. \[\mathrm{CRPS}(F, x) = \mathbb{E}|X-x| - \frac{1}{2}\mathbb{E}|X-X'|\] but these only tell us about relative quality of forecasts
Munday et al., in prep
EpiForecasts group (https://epiforecasts.io)
Akira Endo, Hannah Choi, Hugo Gruson, James Munday,
Kath Sherratt, Nikos Bosse, Sam Abbott, Sophie Meakin
Johannes Bracher, Nick Reich and other collaborators